Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods or our paper for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-07-23

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-07-07) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-07-07 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-07-07 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-07-07 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-07-07 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-07-07 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-07-07)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-07-07) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 169 (145 – 192) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -14 (-31 – -8.9)
Albania 95 (77 – 112) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 30 (11 – -37)
Algeria 543 (484 – 605) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 24 (15 – 60)
Andorra 5 (0 – 11) Unsure 1.4 (0 – 2.9) 3.4 (1.1 – -2.8)
Angola 30 (19 – 39) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.6) 11 (4.8 – -53)
Argentina 3812 (3551 – 4104) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 17 (13 – 22)
Armenia 482 (432 – 528) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -160 (48 – -31)
Australia 251 (216 – 284) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (8 – 21)
Austria 100 (78 – 118) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 46 (12 – -26)
Azerbaijan 557 (499 – 612) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 78 (27 – -83)
Bahrain 545 (486 – 598) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 55 (23 – -160)
Bangladesh 3182 (2948 – 3397) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) 130 (51 – -200)
Belarus 225 (195 – 265) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -150 (27 – -20)
Belgium 136 (108 – 157) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 13 (7.6 – 46)
Benin 54 (37 – 68) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 81 (11 – -15)
Bolivia 1474 (1352 – 1608) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 28 (19 – 51)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 226 (198 – 250) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 76 (20 – -42)
Botswana 30 (20 – 39) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.8) 6.8 (3.7 – 39)
Brazil 38821 (36513 – 41297) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 61 (44 – 94)
Bulgaria 214 (186 – 237) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 52 (17 – -47)
Cameroon 182 (139 – 226) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -12 (-53 – -6.5)
Canada 372 (322 – 416) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 23 (13 – 83)
Cape Verde 51 (37 – 64) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 16 (6.6 – -38)
Central African Republic 31 (18 – 42) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -14 (43 – -5.9)
Chad 5 (0 – 10) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.4 – 3.2) 4.4 (1.5 – -4.4)
Chile 2613 (2477 – 2780) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -55 (-170 – -33)
China 18 (10 – 25) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -18 (13 – -5.5)
Colombia 5748 (5293 – 6209) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 16 (14 – 19)
Congo 86 (69 – 101) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 16 (8 – -310)
Costa Rica 450 (412 – 489) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 24 (14 – 68)
Cote dIvoire 273 (240 – 305) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 49 (18 – -71)
Croatia 86 (67 – 102) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 44 (12 – -25)
Cuba 9 (2 – 14) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.7 – 2) 7 (2.6 – -10)
Czechia 105 (81 – 122) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) 92 (15 – -22)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 57 (40 – 71) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -13 (-460 – -6.9)
Denmark 31 (20 – 41) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.6) 9.3 (4.6 – -250)
Djibouti 22 (13 – 29) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.7) 8.7 (4 – -31)
Dominican Republic 1184 (1077 – 1274) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 22 (16 – 37)
Ecuador 940 (861 – 1026) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 37 (20 – 240)
Egypt 990 (897 – 1078) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -56 (150 – -24)
El Salvador 316 (272 – 353) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 28 (15 – 600)
Equatorial Guinea 159 (114 – 201) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.8) 7.5 (4.5 – 22)
Estonia 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.7 (0.4 – 3) 4.5 (1.4 – -3.9)
Eswatini 52 (38 – 65) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 44 (9.9 – -18)
Ethiopia 215 (190 – 238) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 29 (13 – -110)
Finland 11 (3 – 17) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.6) 26 (4.4 – -6.6)
France 523 (477 – 568) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 36 (17 – -220)
Gabon 43 (30 – 53) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -53 (15 – -9.7)
Germany 407 (354 – 461) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 32 (16 – 1200)
Ghana 442 (390 – 484) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -19 (-49 – -12)
Greece 41 (28 – 52) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 28 (7.9 – -18)
Guatemala 952 (874 – 1041) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 73 (29 – -140)
Guinea 71 (53 – 83) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 23 (8.8 – -39)
Guinea Bissau 26 (17 – 36) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.8) 6.7 (3.6 – 50)
Haiti 61 (46 – 75) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 120 (12 – -15)
Honduras 656 (586 – 729) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -56 (81 – -21)
Hungary 9 (3 – 14) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.8) 14 (3.6 – -7.4)
Iceland 7 (0 – 11) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.7 – 2.3) 6.6 (2.2 – -7.1)
India 31092 (28810 – 33455) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 21 (18 – 23)
Indonesia 1716 (1595 – 1827) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 42 (26 – 100)
Iran 2489 (2311 – 2694) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 170 (53 – -130)
Iraq 2450 (2310 – 2623) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 54 (33 – 140)
Ireland 13 (7 – 19) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.6) 15 (4.3 – -11)
Israel 1665 (1494 – 1822) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (11 – 17)
Italy 203 (173 – 228) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 110 (21 – -32)
Japan 155 (127 – 180) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (7 – 23)
Kazakhstan 1825 (1694 – 1959) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 45 (21 – -540)
Kenya 400 (348 – 445) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 17 (11 – 36)
Kosovo 187 (158 – 211) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 30 (12 – -52)
Kuwait 736 (665 – 806) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 70 (28 – -120)
Kyrgyzstan 463 (424 – 510) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 42 (19 – -250)
Latvia 6 (0 – 14) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.4 – 3.1) 3.6 (1.4 – -6.5)
Lebanon 23 (13 – 31) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -880 (8.1 – -7.8)
Libya 39 (26 – 48) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 22 (7.1 – -20)
Lithuania 6 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.2) 7.3 (2.2 – -6.1)
Luxembourg 42 (31 – 55) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 9.2 (4.8 – 120)
Madagascar 107 (86 – 125) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 15 (8 – 110)
Malawi 88 (69 – 103) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 16 (8 – -930)
Malaysia 8 (2 – 12) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.4) -40 (5.3 – -4.2)
Maldives 23 (13 – 30) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 24 (6.1 – -12)
Mali 31 (21 – 42) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 39 (7.9 – -13)
Mauritania 137 (108 – 161) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -29 (51 – -11)
Mexico 5940 (5460 – 6418) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.1) 38 (25 – 72)
Moldova 241 (210 – 274) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -37 (100 – -16)
Mongolia 7 (0 – 16) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.6 – 2.8) 6.3 (1.9 – -4.7)
Montenegro 44 (31 – 56) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.7) 8.5 (4.7 – 43)
Morocco 322 (275 – 368) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 54 (18 – -58)
Namibia 37 (25 – 48) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 9.6 (4.9 – 190)
Nepal 482 (435 – 524) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -110 (55 – -28)
Netherlands 65 (50 – 78) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -39 (24 – -11)
New Zealand 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.3 – 2.5) 10 (2 – -3.1)
Niger 5 (1 – 9) Unsure 1.1 (0.4 – 1.7) 91 (3.3 – -3.6)
Nigeria 624 (565 – 681) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 84 (29 – -93)
North Macedonia 141 (119 – 162) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 5600 (22 – -22)
Norway 19 (10 – 27) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 35 (5.9 – -9.1)
Oman 1216 (1108 – 1324) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 87 (33 – -130)
Pakistan 3826 (3601 – 4087) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 84 (39 – -650)
Palestine 315 (283 – 345) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (8.5 – 23)
Panama 965 (873 – 1041) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 30 (19 – 66)
Paraguay 57 (40 – 71) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -13 (180 – -6.5)
Peru 3555 (3303 – 3815) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 140 (52 – -210)
Philippines 934 (860 – 1015) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 31 (20 – 75)
Poland 305 (265 – 343) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 61 (20 – -60)
Portugal 355 (312 – 398) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 78 (24 – -58)
Puerto Rico 104 (85 – 120) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 130 (16 – -22)
Qatar 812 (751 – 876) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -36 (-130 – -21)
Romania 398 (352 – 446) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 27 (15 – 140)
Russia 7046 (6601 – 7476) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1) 190 (65 – -200)
Rwanda 28 (16 – 38) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) 1600 (9.3 – -9.2)
Saudi Arabia 4059 (3799 – 4313) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 36 (27 – 54)
Senegal 118 (100 – 137) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 52 (14 – -32)
Serbia 309 (268 – 343) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 10 (7.2 – 16)
Sierra Leone 20 (10 – 29) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 27 (5.7 – -10)
Singapore 187 (164 – 214) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 1400 (25 – -25)
Slovakia 18 (10 – 26) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.7) 14 (4.5 – -13)
Somalia 16 (9 – 23) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.4) 130 (6.2 – -6.7)
South Africa 8738 (7969 – 9480) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (13 – 16)
South Korea 52 (39 – 65) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 31 (8.8 – -22)
South Sudan 15 (7 – 22) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.3) -33 (8.6 – -5.6)
Spain 286 (252 – 320) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -43 (90 – -18)
Sri Lanka 10 (3 – 17) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.5) -48 (5.5 – -4.4)
Sudan 73 (57 – 87) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -23 (47 – -9.3)
Suriname 21 (12 – 29) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -330 (8.7 – -8.2)
Sweden 784 (721 – 851) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -13 (-18 – -10)
Switzerland 98 (77 – 115) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.6) 8.6 (5.5 – 20)
Tajikistan 54 (39 – 66) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -150 (15 – -12)
Thailand 7 (2 – 12) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.6 – 2.2) 6.7 (2.4 – -8.1)
Tunisia 6 (1 – 10) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.2) 6.4 (2.1 – -5.9)
Turkey 1289 (1186 – 1375) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) 1800 (62 – -65)
Uganda 14 (7 – 21) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 69 (5.8 – -7.2)
Ukraine 925 (843 – 1012) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 64 (29 – -280)
United Arab Emirates 556 (494 – 626) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (12 – 35)
United Kingdom 629 (576 – 675) Decreasing 0.8 (0.8 – 0.9) -16 (-24 – -12)
United Republic of Tanzania 10 (4 – 15) Decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -8.6 (32 – -3.7)
United States of America 50471 (46954 – 54073) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 20 (18 – 22)
Uzbekistan 316 (277 – 355) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 19 (12 – 48)
Venezuela 265 (237 – 292) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 26 (14 – 380)
Western Sahara 63 (45 – 75) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.9) 2.7 (1.3 – -23)
Yemen 24 (13 – 33) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -130 (9 – -7.9)
Zambia 23 (13 – 31) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.6) 10 (4.4 – -37)
Zimbabwe 25 (13 – 33) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.9 – 1.8) 8 (3.8 – -61)